Weather Notes

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Weather Notes

Weather Notes
by Had Robinson

When is it safe to fly?  It depends on the weather, the time of day, the skill of the pilot, and whether he is flying PG or PPG.

A powerful, towering cumulonimbus cloud forming over the Franklin Mountains in El Paso, TX.  Ordinarily, moist air is heated near the ground, rises, and condenses into a cloud at the altitude known as cloud base.  This altitude is where the dew point and temperature of the air are the same.  But here the warm moist air had obtained enough velocity to penetrate the colder air above cloud base -- and keep moving.  Wind velocity inside these monsters can exceed 100 mph.  Pilots have been sucked into these clouds and trapped with usually unhappy results.

Wind Speed & Direction   Surface winds should not be more than 13 mph for foot launched paragliding and under 7 mph for flying a trike/quad.  These are only estimates - it's up to the pilot to decide what conditions he is comfortable in.  Always be sure to check the winds aloft before launching as we need to know what's going on above us!  In particular, winds aloft may be 180 degrees different than at the surface and this will cause problems in trying to bench up from our mountain sites and cause turbulence at all sites.  Generally, our best air is from the WSW at the surface and the direction is within 30 degrees or so for the next 10,000' AGL of altitude.  The year 2011 has been a rough year for us as winds aloft have varied excessively as altitude increased from the surface. 

Clouds  If it is cloudy thermals will be suppressed and we can enjoy relatively calm air all day long.  However, the clouds must not be towering cumulus nor threatening rain or hail.  Sunny clear weather pretty much guarantees the presence of thermals and turbulent air so we have to be careful what time of day we launch.  In the fall and winter, the heating of the sun is much less and thermals will be much weaker.  It is often possible to fly all day during this season.

Cirrus clouds over El Paso -- these clouds were formed hundreds of miles southwest of us and were subsequently subjected to mixing from high winds and were shredded.

For PG (free flying) we like modestly strong thermals that average around 600'/min.  When the air is stronger than this, we risk a collapse of our glider because of an occasional thermal which may be more stronger than the average.  Collapses usually spontaneously recover but they are not the most enjoyable event when they occur.  While the average strength can be 600'/min, for example, an occasional "boomer" can drift through which can be much, much stronger than the average (1,200'/min, for example).  There are tools, like XC Skies, that can help us estimate the average strength of the thermals for the day.  If we fly too early or too late, we will not find lift.  If we fly in the middle of the day during late spring, summer, and early fall, we may find thermal strength to be excessive.  What is excessive for one pilot may be too little for another -- this is what flying skill and knowledge is all about.  If we can find ridge lift (when air hits a vertical surface, like a cliff) we prefer to fly either very early or very late in the day as we do not need the presence of thermals to stay up.  However, it is never wise to fly in thermals and ridge lift at the same time as the ridge lift tends to concentrate or merge thermals.

For PPG (powered paragliding) we usually prefer calm air which means launching at dawn or in an inversion.  Typically here in the desert, the air does not get excessively thermic during the late spring, summer, and early fall until about 10AM, daylight time.  This can vary, however, but pilots can tell when the air starts to get active and they can then choose to land.  Things start calming down around 5:00PM.  The air is always the calmest at dawn.  Modest thermic activity will make the air turbulent but it is not dangerous.  If you never want to experience a collapse, fly at these times.  If you fly at dawn and are also within an inversion, you will experience the calmest air possible.  (See below for info on flying in an inversion.) 

Time  The time of all weather related info is often given in "Z" (zulu), "UTC" (universal time coordinated), or "GMT" (Greenwich Mean Time).  It is (6) hours later than MDT and (7) hours later than MST.  Altitude and air pressure are often expressed in millibars.  For a millibars to feet conversion table go here.  For a millibars to inches of Hg. conversion table (barometer readings) go here.  For an explanation of weather symbols go here.

El Paso Microclimates:  There are various micro-climates in El Paso.  Throughout the year we typically have a daily inversion that forms in the Rio Grande valley on the west side of El Paso.  An inversion means that we have a still body of air to fly in that can be easily 1,000' thick or more.  These inversions are very resistant to disturbances from layers of air that are moving above them.  East of the Franklin Mountains, the inversions are not as strong and are of much less significance for us ultralight pilots.  The mesa west of the Rio Grande valley rim is still another climate zone.  As we move away from the valley the inversion gets thinner (and thus weaker) than in the valley.  There is a daily inversion out in the desert but it is even weaker and thinner than in the mesa on the west rim of the valley.  It is often less than 50' in thickness.  The raw atmospheric soundings will give you a good idea of how thick the inversion is (if any) for your particular region.

Two fronts (bodies of air) colliding near Ft. Davis, TX.  This sort of event is hazardous for soaring pilots if they are flying in the vicinity.

The Daily Inversion in the ValleyUnfortunately, weather forecasts do not take into account the presence of inversions.  Who really cares about them -- except us ultralight pilots who fly in them?  This is why the forecasts may say winds are "such and such" but you step outside and it is calm.  Late in the afternoon, even while the sun is still up, the earth rapidly cools off by radiating heat into outer space.  This is what forms the inversion – a layer of air near the ground which is much cooler than the air above it. We learn in physics class that liquids or gases of different temperatures do not tend to mix. As the body of air cools near the ground, it becomes more stable and becomes isolated from the air masses above it.  The inversion typically lasts until mid morning the next day and is about 1,300' thick (from the ground at about 3,700' MSL to over 5,000' MSL).  It can be easy to see an inversion because the air within it is trapped any pollution is visible.  This is why there is usually a thick smoky haze over the valley and also over Juarez every morning. Where the haze/smoke ends is the top of the inversion.  Inversions are very powerful tools for us because they stop strong winds aloft from reaching down through the inversion and affecting our flying.

What shape is the inversion? My experience flying in inversions suggest that they have a flat shape but curve down and thin out at the edges. The eastern edge of our daily inversion is the Franklin mountains and the western edge is a mile or two west of the Doña Ana County airport.  If you get west of the valley and up on the rim, you can see the haze which usually ends just below the pass at Transmountain -- which is just over 5,000' MSL.  The area east of the Franklin Mountains rarely experiences a significant inversion.

Why do we care about this daily inversion?  It means that winds aloft can be some speed and direction but the air near the ground within the inversion is calm, particularly in the Rio Grande valley.  If you study the soundings and forecasts carefully, in particular upstream (up wind) of where you would like to fly, you can predict when it is safe to fly even when winds aloft are strong – and potentially unsuitable or unsafe to fly in.

When winds aloft are relative light or moderate, the inversion is a nuisance, especially if we are interested in thermalling away that day.  This is because the inversion traps everything in it, including thermals.  Thermals will go up in an inversion and, when they reach the top of it, will abruptly stop.  My experience in ascending within a thermal that formed in an inversion is that there is sudden turbulent air when the thermal reaches the top of the inversion.  Imagine squirting a garden hose at a brick wall.  It goes along fine until it hits the brick and then it goes everywhere.  It is just the same.  If you are not expecting this turbulence it can be frightening.  The best thing is to just get away from the thermal as fast as possible.  If you are very lucky, the thermal might just be strong enough to punch a hole through the top of the inversion -- something I have yet to experience.

Line cloud forming (constantly) over the Franklin Mountains in El Paso, TX.  This event was caused by warm moist air coming from the east moving west and being pushed up and over the mountains.  As it went up, the temperature dropped below the dew point and clouds formed.  As it continued on, the air mass dropped down on the other side and the clouds were re-absorbed.

Winds aloft are usually from the west or southwest.  If winds near the surface are moderate or strong from the east, for example, you can expect gusting when flying.  If the Jet stream is overhead, gusting can be particularly dangerous if there is no inversion that can protect us.  For example, I once hiked all the way to the top of Mt. Riley expecting to enjoy the good flying conditions that day but the Jet was overhead.  I spent about 30 minutes at launch just studying the air.  It was coming in at a steady 10-14 mph from the southeast.  And then -- wham -- a 35+ mph gust from the Jet hit the summit of Mt. Riley.  I packed up my glider and hiked back down....  It was a simple and easy decision. 

Generally, if the Jet is directly overhead do not plan on flying that day -- unless you know where the inversion is and stay in it.  If the winds at the surface are southwesterly, there will not be less of a chance of gusting because the Jet and surface flow are going the same direction and it will be safe to fly.  You will always encounter mild to moderate turbulence flying through an inversion layer into winds aloft or back into the inversion.  If you have no idea what is going on, you might be frightened at encountering turbulence "out of nowhere."  That is why we should not be ignorant of the weather -- it really is not rocket science.  Suffice it to say, your personal safety depends on knowing what is going on in the atmosphere.

Here are some guidelines if you wish to safely fly within an inversion (either HG, PG, or PPG):

1.  Also check the NWS El Paso Forecast before you do anything.  It will let you know what the trend is for the day and, especially, if there is any gusting.  Gusting can happen anytime during the forecast period so if the forecast includes gusting that is over 18 or 20 mph, it is probably wise to stay on the ground.

1. If you are flying in west El Paso, go to the Doña County Airport SuperAWOS site and see what the surface winds are doing.  The latest atmospheric sounding data will tell you what winds aloft are doing.  To learn how to get this info, go here.  This sounding data is only helpful 100' or more above the surface as the lower readings are not accurate.

2.  You should not fly in the morning if winds aloft (above 6,000' MSL for our region) are strong (>35 mph) or are getting stronger.  You will have to check the forecast to see if some disturbance is on its way that might cause the winds aloft to increase and quickly blow out the inversion.  You can tell when the inversion is getting ready to dissipate as the air becomes "twitchy."  If you sense anything other than dead air when in the inversion, it is time to land.

3. The evening is the safest time to fly because the inversion gets thicker/stronger which increases its depth and more safely isolates the pilot from the winds aloft.  Usually our inversions end at around 5,000’ MSL (the same height as the pass at Transmountain) so stay well below this altitude if winds aloft are strong.  This gives us about 1,300’ of air to fly/play in if we launch from somewhere in the valley.  If we launch at the sod farm, this value is around 1,000'.  If you live in another region, the Skew-T will tell you exactly where and how thick the daily inversion is.  Always check the forecast for the evening -- there may be a high level trough coming through which will prevent the inversion from forming because of the presence of high winds.

4. WARNING: Be certain that higher winds aloft (>35 mph at 6k' MSL) are not forecast for the evening! I once had the misfortune of not checking this important bit of info and launched in the late afternoon inversion and guess what? It got blown out by howling winds above and I wound up FLYING BACKWARDS for a few miles. How did I save my skin? I allowed myself to be blown over the valley and then quickly descended. The inversion was still holding there and I easily landed. I was never in any real danger but I could have been dragged badly had the inversion blown out everywhere. The good news is – from my experience – that winds aloft above 6,000’ MSL need to be well over 30 mph or so for the inversion not to hold.  Always keep your head and fly your glider.  Pilots have been hurt because of panic.

5. Check the morning soundings to determine how thick the inversion is and what the winds aloft are.

6. Do NOT fly higher than the top of the inversion minus a few hundred feet unless you know that winds aloft are not strong.  Ordinarily, stay below 4,500' MSL or 500' above the surface of the sod farm.  However, I have had fun flying out of the inversion into the winds aloft and moving rapidly across the earth.  Once, I was able to achieve a ground speed of over 55 mph!

7.  Come down by 10 AM (MST) or 9 AM (MDT).  These times can be increased an hour or so if there is cloud cover or other circumstances that mitigate the dissipation of the inversion.

8.  If you have doubts or don't understand the weather well enough, stay on the ground.  Don't rely on others for making your decision to fly -> You are responsible for your own safety!

Cumulonimbus forming over Dry Canyon in Alamogordo.  The dark bottoms of these clouds indicate that they are towering and could easily suck up a pilot!  We all happily watched this while at the DC launch.

Daily Wind Patterns

Light winds from the north are common in the early AM in the valley.  These winds are a result of the daily inversion which forms for hundreds of miles in the Rio Grande river valley.  Imagine that the valley contains a huge lake of cooler air and what does it do?  It flow downhill, just like water.  In fact this effect can be quite strong in some areas, particularly near the lakes about 100 miles north of us.  Winds there are hardly light and sometimes reach 15-20 mph.  Like here, they suddenly end around 10AM as the inversion dissipates.  If you drive north on I-25 you will see warning signs about gusty winds posted next to the deep canyons that the interstate highway traverses.  At the end of the day, sudden cooling of the air in the mountains can unleash a torrent of air that races down these canyons towards the Rio Grande valley.  To a lesser extent, we experience this katabatic flow when we fly late in the day in the Franklins.  Often, the winds near the base of these mountains will reverse -- going from east to west.  This is why it is good to have windsocks in the LZ and pay attention to them.

Going to the sod farm on the west rim of the valley, the early morning winds may be different still.  They may be from the west as the cold night air continues its flow, draining towards the valley from the surrounding desert mesa and the Potrillo Mountains.  Think of it all as a river of air flowing from higher to lower elevations until the sun's heat dissolves the inversion allowing the winds above to mix down to the ground.  Practically, it means that we often must do two or more setups at the sod farm -- one early and then one around 9AM.  If there is a wind change forecasted for higher up in the atmosphere, we may have to work around that, too.

Weather Stations:  The National Weather Service (NWS) provides a national network of radio transmitters that continually broadcast weather conditions and forecasts for their respective area.  For a complete list of stations in the United States and their broadcast frequency, go here.  If you travel a lot, you may want to program into your radio transceiver these frequencies used by the NWS: 162.400 MHz  162.425 MHz  162.450 MHz  162.475 MHz  162.500 MHz  162.525 MHz  162.550 MHz

WXBrief:  Pilots may also use WXBrief to get detailed information of winds aloft, current conditions, and a host of other useful information.  Call 800-WXBRIEF and identify yourself as an ultralight pilot.  Give the briefer your location, when you plan to fly, and what information you would like to have.  These weathermen are experts and are very helpful.  Use the service as much as you can as their existence is dependent on how many pilots use it.  However, only the SuperAWOS can give you surface conditions in west El Paso.

XC Skies is a valuable tool but it is available by subscription only.  It is comprehensive but, like all forecasting tools, it is not always accurate per timing of weather events or of surface winds.  Like the NWS, its surface wind forecasts are useless.  Its most valuable information has to do with thermal strength during the day.

Learn how to use the following tools -- Both your safety and flying enjoyment will greatly improve.  Our thanks to Lance Tripoli of the National Weather Service for his help with the weather.  If you have questions about any of these tools, you may contact us and we will forward questions to him.  "*" = our most important tools

El Paso National Weather Service The wind speeds and directions are for El Paso International  Airport.  They are often different than where we fly on the west side.  You should always check the NWS forecast before flying.

SuperAWOS Doña County Airport  This is the next most important tool and the ONLY source we have of current conditions on the west side of El Paso.  AWOS stands for "automated weather observation system".  The airport in Santa Teresa, NM installed this wonderful device so pilots can know not only wind direction and speed but the temperature, dew point, and barometer pressure and trend, as well.  Data from other sources is often an hour or more old = obsolete.  For the weather further west, check the El Paso National Weather Service Deming station.

NWS Raw Atmospheric Soundings - This is the info you must study to see if it is safe to fly as it will tell you what's going on in the atmosphere per wind direction and speed.  Also, it is essential if you want to find out if it's a good day for soaring in thermals, do PPG in an inversion, or stay on the ground!  There are basically two plots you want to look at.  Both have the same info from the raw soundings but it is arranged differently. Atmospheric sounding data is published twice daily from sites all over the world.  We are particularly fortunate to have weather balloons being released right here in El Paso.  Albuquerque, Tucson, and Flagstaff also release weather balloons so we have no excuse not to be informed. 

Firstly, you want to check the direction and speed of the air up through the atmosphere.  Follow the link above and, at the top of the screen, make sure "Type of plot" is "Text: List".  The date should be current and the time will usually be when the last balloon was released which is every 12 hours at 00:00 and 12:00GMT (Greenwich Mean Time).  If you understand GMT or "Z" time, you can tweak the time a little closer than the default.  The soundings are available roughly a 1/2 hour after the balloon is released.  The time is in the format "day-of-the-month/00Z or 12Z" which is 6AM or 6PM MDT or 5:00AM MST and 5:00PM MST.  On the default report the Type of plot is "Text:List").  Once you set up the type of plot and the correct time, click on the appropriate (for us here in El Paso it is "EPZ".  On the plot for EPZ, the first column is the altitude measured in mb/hPa.  To convert this to feet, go here for a conversion chart.  For your convenience you can print it and post it by your computer screen.  The second column is the altitude in meters.  Columns 7 & 8 give you the wind direction and speed in knots, respectively.  A knot equals about 1.2 mph (for a conversion chart, go here). 

Secondly, the raw soundings can also be plotted as Skew-T charts.  Learn how to read a Skew-T chart in order to know the depth and strength of any inversions present in the atmosphere.  For a introductory explanation of the Skew-T go here (courtesy of Cross Country magazine and Honza Rejmánek - used by permission).  Get a cup of coffee or tea, sit down, and spend an hour carefully reading this article by Honza.  Then re-read it.   NASA has an good introduction to the Skew-T here.  Another good explanation of the Skew-T is here.  Remember, if you just want to know wind speed and direction, you can chose "Text List" for the Type of Plot.

NWS graphical forecast is the most useful as it forecasts gusting which is so hazardous to us.  It gives us both current conditions and forecast for temp, wind speed, and direction for our region.  Do not use this forecast for areas west, such as Kilbourne Hole.  Instead, check the trends of RTMA (see "Additional Tools" below) and the actual conditions at Deming, NM.

USAirNet winds & temp aloft is important if you are getting near the mountains.  However, it is just a forecast tool and has nothing to do with speed and direction of air near the surface.  It should always be checked before flying here in the southwest but AFTER you check the NWS Raw Atmospheric Soundings site.  Be careful if you fly in our daily inversion when winds aloft at 6k' are greater than 20. The inversion can dissipate suddenly and you will be going backwards -- which can be unsafe.  As the weather balloons almost always drift east, these soundings get a little less accurate the farther west you go, e.g., Mt. Riley.

Jet Stream location  If it is overhead, expect turbulence aloft.  Severity depends on how strong the jet is.  Unless you are flying early AM in the inversion, it is better to stay out of the atmosphere when the Jet is nearby.

NOAA Satellite image of water vapor over the US  This is a 24 hour animated loop of the water vapor moving across the US.  It is more fascinating than useful.  It can, however, tell us precipitation trends.  Often, cyclonic lows are visible over the Pacific Ocean southwest of us and you can see how they dissipate and spin off vapor trails and troughs that pass over us.

National Surface Pressure Chart - Shows the lows and highs all over the U.S.

Soaring Forecasts - For thermalling pilots, check "complete report", RAOB is "El Paso", enter "forecast high temperature" for the day, and make "altitude limit" 18,000' then submit request. This will give you the Thermal Index at various altitudes. Note: This site and the others can sometimes be "down" -- please be patient and try later. Only with a thermometer to measure "puddle temperature" at ground level, will the TI be most accurate.  It is also a good idea to check the Skew-T of NWS Raw Atmospheric Soundings for EPZ (our local NOAA weather station) - see below.  XC Skies will do all of the above and more with just a click of the mouse (but it is not free).

Meso West Region - These are reports from weather stations all over southern New Mexico except Santa Teresa.  These reports, though supposedly real-time, can be 1.5 hours old.  For west El Paso always check the SuperAWOS above.

ADDS tool is amazing for its versatility.  The right hand bar can be "grabbed" to give wind forecasts for different altitudes.  It is similar to the RTMA model but much broader in altitude and time.  Goes hours and days into the future.  Forecasts of wind direction are never as accurate as actual recordings.  This tool is not too accurate for the desert west of El Paso but much better for the Rio Grande valley and the city of El Paso.  Like other tools of this sort, it is of less help for forecasting winds near the surface in our desert climate. 

Additional weather tools

El Paso National Weather Service Deming gives the air temperature, wind speed, and direction that are the closest to those of our western sites, such as Mt. Riley and Kilbourne Hole maar.  You will find that about one mile west of Doña Ana County Airport, the weather pattern changes as you leave the Rio Grande Valley area.  The SuperAWOS at the airport is always more helpful.

RTMA records winds near the ground and it is remarkably accurate for sites close to El Paso.  It is similar to the ADDS tool but only is for the past.  On the this page, drill down to near the bottom and find the RTMA tabs and then pick the time.  You can see that the latest RTMA model lags by about an hour or more, depending on which chart you look at.  It is still helpful as the conditions an hour or so ago are often also current.  In any event, you can see the trends over time.  It is for ridge soaring purposes, primarily as it is only 10m off the ground.

RAP Geographically broad forecast of winds aloft days into the future.  It is quite accurate and is especially useful for determining conditions at Dry Canyon.

     

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This site was last updated 02/09/12